Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Why Egypt will be "fine"

Just a quick post that I've been meaning to write for a few days:

For anyone who's worrying about the violence in Egypt, here's why I think things will stay stable:

With all of Egypt's hard power being concentrated in the hands of the army, and the army's industrial complex, the army has a huge interest (and the power to enforce) in keeping stability. 
As an institution, the army would be very badly hit if there was a civil war.

Let me elaborate why:

The army controls approximately 30% of the Egyptian economy (estimates vary). With this control, it gets revenues. If the country goes to hell, the economy will go to hell, an so will the army's coffers. If people stop (unknowingly) buying army-produced goods, the army will suffer, greatly.

So basically, the army has a business interest in keeping the country stable and Egyptians consuming, and because the army has the monopoly on power and is accountable to no one (not even the president), they can step in when they see that their business interests are at risk.

Then, they will put someone in place who will be favorable to their business interest (which happens –at least partially– to be in Egypt's interest as well, i.e. stability and GDP growth). The army's power-deal with the MB last year was just this, except the brotherhood took their socio-political interest WAY too far, and those didn't not coincide with the people's. 

caveat (hehe):
of course... there may be a few martyrs and car-bombs along the way... but still. I believe that the army will succeed in maintaining stability.

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